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Comparison of Effect Sizes Associated With Biomarkers Reported in Highly Cited Individual Articles and in Subsequent Meta-analyses

renchunxiao 添加于 2011/7/4 10:27:33  1904次阅读 | 0次推荐 | 0个评论

Context Many biomarkers are proposed in highly cited studies as determinants of disease risk, prognosis, or response to treatment,but few eventually transform clinical practice.Objective To examine whether the magnitude of the effect sizes of biomarkers proposed in highly cited studies is accurate or overestimated.Data Sources We searched ISI Web of Science and MEDLINE until December 2010.Study Selection We included biomarker studies that had a relative risk presented in their abstract. Eligible articles were those that hadreceived more than 400 citations in the ISI Web of Science and that had been published in any of 24 highly cited biomedicaljournals. We also searched MEDLINE for subsequent meta-analyses on the same associations (same biomarker and same outcome).Data Extraction In the highly cited studies, data extraction was focused on the disease/outcome, biomarker under study, and first reportedrelative risk in the abstract. From each meta-analysis, we extracted the overall relative risk and the relative risk in thelargest study. Data extraction was performed independently by 2 investigators.Results We evaluated 35 highly cited associations. For 30 of the 35 (86%), the highly cited studies had a stronger effect estimatethan the largest study; for 3 the largest study was also the highly cited study; and only twice was the effect size estimatestronger in the largest than in the highly cited study. For 29 of the 35 (83%) highly cited studies, the corresponding meta-analysisfound a smaller effect estimate. Only 15 of the associations were nominally statistically significant based on the largeststudies, and of those only 7 had a relative risk point estimate greater than 1.37.Conclusion Highly cited biomarker studies often report larger effect estimates for postulated associations than are reported in subsequentmeta-analyses evaluating the same associations.

作 者:Ioannidis, John P. A.; Panagiotou, Orestis A.
期刊名称: JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association
期卷页: 06/01/2011 第305卷 第21期 2200~页
学科领域:生命科学 » 生物物理、生物化学与分子生物学 » 生物大分子结构与功能
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原文链接:http://jama.ama-assn.org/content/305/21/2200
DOI: 10.1001/jama.2011.713
ISBN: 0098-7484
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